BEIJING, CHINA — China is expected to produce slightly more corn in 2023-24 due to a larger planted area, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Production is estimated at 280 million tonnes, up from 277.2 million tonnes produced in 2022-23. The FAS increased its planted area estimate by 300,000 acres from its June report.

Grain feed and residual use is expected to increase slightly from 282.3 million tonnes in 2022-23 to 285 million tonnes in 2023-24, the FAS said.

The total hog herd in June was 435.2 million head, about 1% higher than a year ago. The sow inventory is still higher year-over-year after continuously declining in the first seven months of the year. Also, efforts to promote lower inclusion rates of soybean meal in feed is increasing the proportion of grain ingredients in feed, the FAS said.

The FAS said imports for 2023-24 are estimated at 20 million tonnes, 3 million tonnes lower than the official USDA estimate. Access to quota is an issue, the FAS said, with 60% of the 7.2 million tonnes TRQ allocated to state-owned enterprises and 40% to private buyers.

“Traders unable to competitively import corn or receive TRQs have active interest in alternative grains such as domestic sprouted wheat and old stock rice and imported barley and sorghum as replacements for corn in feed rations,” the FAS said. “On the other hand, PRC-backed offices and trading enterprises will likely continue building corn reserves by buying imported corn when it is priced competitively.”

Wheat production for 2023-24 is slightly lower than the current USDA estimate of 136.5 million tonnes. China’s summer wheat production fell 0.9%, the first decline in seven years, due to heavy rain in key growing areas just ahead of harvest.